In the work of targeted and measurable marketing analytics I have done over the last few years via the Internet, I have almost always looked at the bulk media purchases of television advertising as, well, foolish. Of course there will always be CRM numbers and "call to action" responses. What would television be like without QVC and late night infomercials? Sleepless narcoleptics might actually have something to watch at 2:30 am. Certainly, marketers would have more of a struggle in determining ROI from their investment in television advertising without call to action. Take a look at what happened to the market today. Do you really suppose that marketers are, with their shrunken budgets, going to keep pouring money into a medium with less-than-satisfactory measurement capability? If so, think again. 

Extinction

The rise of alternate forms of media, mobile marketing, the tanking of world markets, and the demand for more measurable ways to influence have served as an extinction meteor for traditional media buys. Adage reported on the 'fist-tightening' exercise happening among media reporting and measurement firms:

Nielsen has been down this road before. Tight-fisted advertisers trying to muddle though a difficult economy have already pulled back on media spending, so how willing will they be this year to spend money on the research that helps justify that spending? Marketers pay a lot of lip service to the ideal of linking every dollar they spend to sales boosts, lead generation and market-share increases. But many of Nielsen's recent efforts to create a market in this area have floundered.

Although what is happening is not a new phenomenon, what we can do about what is happening is a different game entirely. During other recessions there were not other competing, arguably more effective, sources to turn to. Contrastingly, our current situation is markedly inconsistent with the past. We now have choices between so many, arguable more qualified content distribution mediums. A fact that makes advertisers look less intelligent in the face of shrinking budgets. Necessity is the mother of invention, a fact pointed out by the Adage post. Shortly after reading the Adage article Rob Gorrie posted an excellent piece, citing a generational shift that will help to move the Titanic of tradition in media purchases: 

Many of the younger generations coming up through the schools and soon to be joining the media/marketer communities just aren’t as bought into the “no one ever got fired for buying TV” mantra. Think of many of the folks in Digital Agencies (yes, those agencies now winning full accounts from traditional agencies) who are byproducts of the Internet age. They’d much rather look at an integrated campaign involving drive to web + mobile integration + ongoing CRM + engagement, etc, etc where TV is a smaller “promotional” piece instead of the start of the media strategy. They are much more comfortable in buying the “other” mediums they grew up with and interact with every day…I could easily see a time when TV not having the aforementioned data simply won’t fly - at least with the next gen of marketers.

I could not agree more. Generational shifts or major disasters are often required to cause elimination of mindless groupthink. Can you say suffrage or civil rights? In the case of the extinction of television, we can cite both as contributory. We are now witnessing the perform storm. The winds of change are upon us and acclimation holds the day. But where do we look? 

Evolution

As budgets continue to shrink, advertisers themselves become a dying breed. As marketers get picked off, what do the survivors do? They adapt, perform, and penny pinch budgets in order to get increased 'bang per buck.' In short, they have to diffuse the bomb while working with sweaty hands from the heat. 

As forced performance becomes the slogan of the day, advertisers are looking to other outlets. A recent article posted at TechCrunch, begged the question, "Want to See Where Media is Going? Follow the Money." The article outlines the various ways to pinpoint what direction we are going in media, citing that following the money trail is the best method (honestly, if you didn't get that solely from the title, you're an idiot...sorry :). The TechCrunch article states: "Jordan, Edmiston Group estimates that between 88 percent of the publishing and advertising industry’s revenue growth over the next few years will come from four sectors: Database & Information, B2B Online Media, Consumer Online Media, and Interactive Marketing Services." By the sounds of it, we will be hurting for sometime, but when we emerge, we will have finally figured out how to be more effective. 

I posted several weeks ago on the evolution of digital signage. I discussed how digital signage will be forced to adapt or else it will, much like yesterdays mediums, eventually fall. In the case of digital signage, increased interactivity seems to be the direction of the ship. I like what Yahoo has done with Cinematic Internet, but again, Yahoo is still putting content control back in the hand of the user--meaning advertisers do not even get to advertise, an action that is fairly important if you want to measure an appropriate ROI.

So, television may be dead along with the auto manufacturers, but it is a natural capitalistic evolution that is taking place. Outdated ideologies, ineffective methods, foolish guesswork and unmeasurable returns will and must be replaced by solid and effective methods. It's happening and frankly, it's good to see.